So I think it’s easy to forget that I came from exactly the same starting point as a lot of newbies and beginners and people who are learning to trade. In fact, I came from a lower point because when I started doing it, nobody even had a clue that you could do it at all, and everybody thought I was a complete crackpot. When I said all I’ve found a way of making money from sports markets and no gang all isn’t that gambling.
Well, yes, it is but it’s sort of different form and it’s much more reliable and you know I think I can do this on a much bigger scale and everybody just laughed and thought. Well, you know he’s totally going off on one here, because how many people have said that before. But the fact is that the way that I started is the way that I still recommend that people who are starting out get started now. But you have a much better base to work from now, because obviously people like me can give you a firm grounding and knowledge in how the markets work and what to do about it.
But back when I started, I didn’t have that and if you look at the way, I approached it, it’s a good way of understanding how to progress and get knowledge and improve your results as you go through the markets, and I use exactly the same thing now As I did all the way back, then so, if I look at a new market and I’m trying to understand how to work effectively in that market, I go through exactly the same process and that process is one of basically eliminating errors over the many years. What’S happened is my attitude to risk, has changed and shifted dramatically, because I always used to be over cautious and people will tell you this, who knew me for many years ago, in that, if there was a risk that something would go wrong, I wouldn’t do it And you know I was super cautious and in fact, when I look back now, I realized that that was a terrible mistake, because when you look at risk it’s equally distributed. So you know you have good things that can happen and you have bad things that can happen and that’s in all aspects of life, not just trading, but when you look at the way that risk is distributed, it’s equally distributed.
In other words, what I’m saying to you is there are situations where things can go wrong, but there are also situations where things can go right. So if you look at the way that risk is distributed, you can basically learn how to adapt whatever you’re doing, to take account of that. So, for example, you put a position in the market very possible that that could go wrong, but also it’s very possible that that could go right. So when you are active in the market, what you find is those opportunities occur with amazing regularity in both directions. So, just as you could be unlucky and lose money, you could be unlucky and make a lot of money as well, but basically that’s equally distributed. So once you realize that that alters quite dramatically the way that you participate in the market, because if you go into the market, you know that you can make money randomly and you can obviously lose money randomly your focus begins to shift then to try to minimize Losses when they occur and maximize profits when they occur as well, so that was a shift for me in terms of mindset was learning to do that, but also what you do is you begin to try and understand what is causing that you’re?
Looking for situations that lead up to those particular situations and it’s perfectly possible to find them so if you go into a market, could be any market that you’re interested in trading and you’re active on that market. What you learn is there: a pattern develops where you’ll see some that produce exceptionally good results and some that produce exceptionally bad results. So it’s the understanding of what produces those that will guide you forward and you’ll, find it in every market. So in racing and tennis and football and golf all of these things, all of these little patterns develop, some of them can be really obvious, and some of them can be.
You know quite unobvious and it’s weird because some of the best strategies that I’ve come up with strategies that are almost completely counterintuitive, so you go to do something and you think, okay, I think I know what’s going to happen here and then completely the opposite happens. So you suddenly start looking at in your thinking. Well yeah. Why did that happen?
What caused that and then suddenly you begin to uncover all of the detail within the market, but essentially it’s about correlations, because if you trade in one particular style across say a hundred markets, you’ll find some markets, it works brilliantly in and some it doesn’t. So when you go to do the trade in the next hundred markets, you eliminate you get rid of the ones that it didn’t work as long as you can find a correlation, so you can look at all of those bad results and say well. They seems to work well and they didn’t work well and look at this. This is interesting because this seems to be the predominant characteristic that’s coming out of this market, so it could be the starting odds.
It could be some element of the competition that it’s in it could be the type of competitors and could be the time of year. The time of day it could be. What had just happened in the event before there are so many different ways to correlate information and correlations are everywhere and I’d like to thank Matt Piper for points me. A website called spurious correlations because it’s important to understand that, just as you can find correlations that work particularly well, sometimes you can find stuff that seems to be correlated, but it’s it’s a completely relevancy, there’s no correlation there at all.
So you know, for example, you know somebody can release a scientific study, saying if you eat bananas, you suffer from lung cancer, but what they’ve, in fact failed to do is to form the link that nearly all of the people that are in the study were heavy Smokers, so you know you have to carefully understand why that correlation exists. So it’s not good enough to find something that seems to work. You have to explain it as well, but basically by going through this process of looking for errors and trying to eliminate them, but also trying to understand what creates that bias in the market on either side for the profits and the losses that will move you forward. Because if you strike out the errors and you focus on the things that seem to work and then gradually you know it may be a meandering path, but you’ll gradually push forward, and once you start practicing that and that’s a skill in itself. So I find it quite difficult not to find correlations and things or not to search for them. So I was watching a Bond movie the other night and brought up the details of it on Wikipedia, and I thought, oh you know.
I think I don’t remember this watching this at the the cinema and I must have watched DVD or on the telly Olsson think so maybe it wasn’t very successful. So I scrolled through looked at it and looked at the box-office receipts, and then I began to realize there was a correlation between box-office receipts, lead actors, salary and who is the next James Bond. So I reckon I can predict when the next Bond will be appointed because you can actually find a correlation between box-office receipts and salary and and when they get sacked. Basically, when they’re asked to move on or they look to seek a replacement.
So that’s a very curious correlation, but if you look in the market and all of the activity in the market does exhibit correlations to certain things, there are precursors and situations that perform better than others. So when you go into a market, it’s fair enough to use just one strategy, but what you’ll find is it forms well in some markets and not the others? So my mantra basically is that for every market there’s a strategy and if we strategy there’s a market, you just have to link the two together and sometimes you know you, there is nothing there.
You can’t find anything, or there is no explanation and the market has a certain amount of entropy about it, where sometimes it’s just not possible to work out why something went wrong, but that’s fair enough as well, because you know in those moments where the market appears To be totally random or a bit bonkers and over time that will work in your favor and against you and equal proportions. So you’ll just end up wasting a bit of time. Probably, but if you want to go from just starting out and then moving on to a much much higher level, that’s what it should be. Religiously doing all the time record.
Some videos of you trading record notes of what you’ve been doing and to try and work out what created the Lots. You may not find an explanation for it. You may not find why something worked particularly well, but go down that route because it will allow you to understand and not replicate that error or it will allow you to spot that opportunity going forward.
So that’s what I recommend you know get very focused to keep good records and look to maximize any of the potential profitability and minimize your loss by trying to avoid it or looking for situations that are more likely to lead to it. Sometimes doing. Nothing is a good way to avoid loss. If you look at a market – and you can’t work it out or you don’t see an opportunity, then you just do nothing but yeah. If you want to go from beginner to much more advanced level.